27 Oct · 14:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1476
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Baron
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1433
FormLWLLW
55%
45%
🌟Juzek stays under total as underdog 67% (36)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)