27 Oct · 19:55 MEZElite · Strong Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1356
FormLWLLL
74%Win chancemodel fair 1.35Krezel
AK
🇵🇱Andrzej Krezel
ELO 1590
FormWLLWL
26%
74%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski
Fair odds · Krezel
Model 74% · 1.35vsMarket 74% · 1.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~75 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+234
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+234)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)