27 Oct · 20:00 MEZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1541
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1585
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H20-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-10)