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27 Oct · 23:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1341
3-1Final setsLukaszewski won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1301
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lukaszewski at 53%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Jaroslaw Rolak favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 79.5
77 points played
Under
Set handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.3
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mikolaj Lukaszewski is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Mikolaj Lukaszewskipre 57% → final 100%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 63 ptsLukaszewski recovered from 37%72 points · 4 games