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28 Oct · 04:35 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
RIRafal Idaczyk
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1440
3-1Final setsIdaczyk won
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1552
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 65%. The actual result was Rafal Idaczyk 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marian Lebek favoured — closing 1.35
Upset
Total 71.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marian Lebek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marian Lebek −7.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
6.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Idaczyk is favoured to win, below means Marian Lebek.

▲ Rafal Idaczykpre 37% → final 100%
Marian Lebek ▼
Biggest swing 86 ptsIdaczyk recovered from 14%72 points · 4 games