28 Oct · 06:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1549
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nocun
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1515
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Fomin covers set handicap as underdog 67% (33)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H21-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.