28 Oct · 06:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1318
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kotwica
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1291
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H9-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.