28 Oct · 17:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nadolny
ELO 1495
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nadolny
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1469
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Solilo rarely covers set handicap as underdog 26% (35)
Fair odds · Nadolny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.