28 Oct · 17:25 MEZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1307
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1315
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szoltysek🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.