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01 Nov · 01:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
CPCezary Pawlik
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1640
3-2Final setsPawlik won
GMGrzegorz Mucha
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1543
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Pawlik at 58%. The actual result was Cezary Pawlik 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mucha favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 75.5
98 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mucha −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mucha −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.85
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Cezary Pawlik is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Mucha.

▲ Cezary Pawlikpre 62% → final 96%
Grzegorz Mucha ▼
Biggest swing 78 ptsPawlik recovered from 20%72 points · 5 games