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01 Nov · 12:00 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
AMArkadiusz Mugowski
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1357
3-1Final setsMugowski won
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1307
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mugowski at 55%. The actual result was Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Arkadiusz Mugowski favoured — closing 1.45
Favourite won
Total 76.5
75 points played
Under
Set handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −5.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Arkadiusz Mugowski is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Wisniewski.

▲ Arkadiusz Mugowskipre 59% → final 79%
Bartlomiej Wisniewski ▼
Biggest swing 44 pts72 points · 4 games