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01 Nov · 12:50 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MSMaciej Sinicki
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1333
3-1Final setsSinicki won
AMArkadiusz Mugowski
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1357
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mugowski at 54%. The actual result was Maciej Sinicki 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Arkadiusz Mugowski favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 75.5
82 points played
Over
Set handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maciej Sinicki is favoured to win, below means Arkadiusz Mugowski.

▲ Maciej Sinickipre 49% → final 89%
Arkadiusz Mugowski ▼
Biggest swing 64 ptsSinicki recovered from 31%72 points · 4 games