1 Nov · 23:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1442
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1502
FormLLLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H13-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-9)