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02 Nov · 19:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1328
3-1Final setsKowalczyk won
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1291
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wisniewski at 53%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Wisniewski favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Wisniewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Wisniewski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.75
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Wisniewski.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 50% → final 100%
Bartlomiej Wisniewski ▼
Biggest swing 73 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 27%70 points · 4 games