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03 Nov · 05:50 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1560
2-3Final setsTkaczyk won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1488
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 60%. The actual result was Henryk Tkaczyk 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marian Lebek favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 73.5
92 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marian Lebek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marian Lebek −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marian Lebek is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Marian Lebekpre 64% → final 25%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsTkaczyk recovered from 18%72 points · 5 games