3 Nov · 17:50 MEZLow · Slight Edge
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1500
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1536
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Tkaczyk covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.