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03 Nov · 17:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1302
3-1Final setsWisniewski won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1282
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wisniewski at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Wisniewski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Jaroslaw Rolak favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Set handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Wisniewski is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Bartlomiej Wisniewskipre 56% → final 98%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 72 ptsWisniewski recovered from 27%72 points · 4 games