4 Nov · 19:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1568
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Nocun
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1517
FormWLLWL
56%
44%
🌟Fomin covers set handicap as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H22-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-17)