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05 Nov · 05:50 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
RIRafal Idaczyk
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1480
3-2Final setsIdaczyk won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1479
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkaczyk at 52%. The actual result was Rafal Idaczyk 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Henryk Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.55
Upset
Total 74.5
102 points played
Over
Set handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −4.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
5.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Idaczyk is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Rafal Idaczykpre 51% → final 99%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 69 ptsIdaczyk recovered from 31%72 points · 5 games