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05 Nov · 06:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
PWPiotr Wiciok
🇵🇱Piotr Wiciok
ELO 1498
3-1Final setsWiciok won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1472
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wiciok at 52%. The actual result was Piotr Wiciok 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Henryk Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 74.5
84 points played
Over
Set handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.3
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Piotr Wiciok is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Piotr Wiciokpre 49% → final 5%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 44 pts55 points · 3 games