5 Nov · 13:00 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1458
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1517
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H20-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)