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05 Nov · 17:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1322
3-1Final setsMrugala won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1315
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mrugala favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Total 77.5
86 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mrugala −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mrugala −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 56% → final 90%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsMrugala recovered from 43%72 points · 4 games