6 Nov · 21:40 MEZLow · Coin Flip
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1402
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Maruszak
PM
🇵🇱Piotr Maruszak
ELO 1411
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Wozniak rarely covers set handicap as underdog 34% (29)
Fair odds · Maruszak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.