6 Nov · 21:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1531
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Schaniel
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1454
FormWWLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)