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07 Nov · 17:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
JCJakub Chmielowski
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1701
3-1Final setsChmielowski won
MKMaciej Kolek
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1642
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Chmielowski at 55%. The actual result was Jakub Chmielowski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Jakub Chmielowski favoured — closing 1.6
Favourite won
Total 74.5
67 points played
Under
Set handicap
Jakub Chmielowski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Jakub Chmielowski −3.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Jakub Chmielowski is favoured to win, below means Maciej Kolek.

▲ Jakub Chmielowskipre 59% → final 99%
Maciej Kolek ▼
Biggest swing 45 pts66 points · 4 games