7 Nov · 20:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1342
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nosiadek
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1311
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Nosiadek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.