7 Nov · 23:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1406
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1487
FormLWLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H23-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-9)