7 Nov · 23:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1406
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Mugowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1325
FormWWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H25-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-22)