8 Nov · 00:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1408
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1470
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)