8 Nov · 02:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1480
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkaczyk
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1400
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)