8 Nov · 13:25 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1348
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sinicki
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1317
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.