9 Nov · 03:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Andrzej Szurgot
ELO 1477
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1535
FormWLWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)