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08 Nov · 20:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MBMariusz Baron
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1536
3-0Final setsBaron won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1450
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Baron at 58%. The actual result was Mariusz Baron 3-0 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Baron favoured — closing 1.8
Favourite won
Total 75.5
59 points played
Under
Set handicap
Mariusz Baron −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mariusz Baron −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
5.8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Baron is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Mariusz Baronpre 62% → final 96%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 41 pts58 points · 3 games