8 Nov · 21:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
DD
🇵🇱Dawid Dytko
ELO 1422
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1450
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.