8 Nov · 23:55 MEZLow · Coin Flip
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1456
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vincenec
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1444
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tkaczyk
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.