9 Nov · 00:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1345
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sawicki
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1388
FormLWLLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sawicki
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H15-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-8)