9 Nov · 04:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1493
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1563
FormWLLWL
42%
58%
🌟Marud stays under total as favourite 78% (41)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H86-86
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)