9 Nov · 05:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1504
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baron
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1466
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Bernacki rarely covers set handicap as underdog 25% (12)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.