9 Nov · 17:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1409
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1473
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Minda goes over total as favourite 72% (40)
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H12-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-3)