9 Nov · 17:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1445
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1497
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)