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09 Nov · 20:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1312
2-3Final setsLukaszewski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1285
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 52%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 2-3 at close
5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 56% → final 55%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 45 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 41%72 points · 5 games