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09 Nov · 22:05 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1285
3-0Final setsLukaszewski won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1298
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 51%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-0 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
7.75
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mikolaj Lukaszewski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Mikolaj Lukaszewskipre 45% → final 46%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 45 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 40%72 points · 5 games