10 Nov · 06:50 MEZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1494
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stapor
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1460
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H18-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.