10 Nov · 08:50 MEZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1837
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sklensky
JB
🇵🇱Josef Braun
ELO 1825
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Braun
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H22-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.