10 Nov · 09:10 MEZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1500
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1540
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 63% (83)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H32-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.