10 Nov · 10:00 MEZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1480
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1535
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Idaczyk stays under total as underdog 68% (105)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H24-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-16)