10 Nov · 10:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1485
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobel
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1464
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Sobel goes over total as favourite 78% (18)
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H11-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.