10 Nov · 10:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1505
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Urban
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1489
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kurek🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (94)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H18-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.