10 Nov · 10:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1511
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skotniczny
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1466
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H29-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-21)