10 Nov · 12:10 MEZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1489
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1475
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.